Market icon

How many Fed rate cuts this year?

$49,441,487 Vol.

Dec 31, 2024

4 (100 bps) 99.9%

0 <1%

1 (25 bps) <1%

2 (50 bps) <1%

AprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec0%20%40%60%80%100%

Source: Polymarket.com

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

RESULT

Rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there no rate cuts by the Fed's December meeting (including the Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2024 meeting has been released if there has been no rate cuts by then.

If there is a rate cut at any time within 2024, before the statement following the December FOMC meeting is released, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2024 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Volume

$49,441,487

End Date

Dec 31, 2024

Outcome proposed: No

Disputed

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Comments (267)
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cool

Daydrop

3mo ago

it was expected

AgricultureSecretary

GG WP

lulu12345

3mo ago

Easy money

lulu12345

3mo ago

CPI surprise will make towel boy reconsider

wittgen

wittgen

3mo ago

why towel?

v8l85p2l

v8l85p2l

4mo ago

6

z5ih3bin

z5ih3bin

4mo ago

1

Gregory0

4mo ago

25%

FrancisSP8

FrancisSP8

4mo ago

bond market estimates the probability of the rates staying the same (3 rate cuts for the year) at 4% https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

guguos

4mo ago

4 (100 bps)

BelieveInSomething

Easy money

livo

4mo ago

Will this market resolve on Dec 18th after the Fed decision or on Dec 31st?

18th

Roeman

Roeman

4mo ago

25%

TheRealestJOE

💯

sMILE

4mo ago

CPI surprise will make towel boy reconsider

smallFry

smallFry

4mo ago

pls mr Powell

Uinty

4mo ago

=4

Geracin

4mo ago

Freeze at 4 times

XIAOER

4mo ago

There will be 4 occurrences in 2024

GNS

4mo ago

Won’t risk another cut until Trump in office. Too many policy uncertainties.

Popolor

4mo ago

4

Crying

4mo ago

The prediction is 4 times, with a low probability of 5 times

Gen-Canyon

4mo ago

4

Jasonaax

4mo ago

ok

Boey1828

4mo ago

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/feds-musalem-time-may-be-approaching-to-slow-or-pause-rate-cuts-20241204/

3 baby

Longe

4mo ago

Four times

Gutaren

4mo ago

4

Potic

4mo ago

4-5

CalculatedRisk

Unfortunately Waller and JPow rarely lie like our great president. So I would be inclined to bet 4 but the ROI is kinda low

first54

first54

4mo ago

It is impossible to cut interest rates more than 6 times.

Shayku

Shayku

4mo ago

Sure, but a 0.3% return over 18 days is about a 6.26% annual return.

sssasuka

4mo ago

have no idea what i am betting on, just gambling

based

MyLossIsYourGain

I really could use the same market for next year. This is getting too boring

Ortwt

4mo ago

3 (75 bps)

MageGold

4mo ago

75% another -.25

Ratami

4mo ago

Expected 4 times

sdsad1s1s

sdsad1s1s

4mo ago

Mainnet checker for $ME token is already published! Read post now: x.com/MagicEden/status/1857932890681626977 #AIRDROP2024

Assuming there's a fourth rate cut in December, I understand four would win. But if it is a half point would four still win or would five win? Because it would take it up to 1.25.

0xB16B00B5

4mo ago

according to the rules of this market a -50bp move is counted as 2 cuts. so if they were to go -50bp at the december meeting the five option would resolve to 'yes' and all others to 'no'.

Outcome: No

0