Market Roundup
• US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,886K, 1,880K forecast, 1,871K previous
• US Core PPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US Core PPI (YoY) (Nov) 3.4%, 3.2% forecast, 3.4% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims 242K, 221K forecast, 225K previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 224.25K, 218.50K previous
• US PPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US PPI (YoY) (Nov) 3.0%, 2.6% forecast, 2.6% previous
• US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) (Nov) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
• US PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) (Nov) 3.5%, 3.5% previous
•Canada Building Permits (MoM) (Oct) -3.1%, -4.8% forecast, 11.5% previous
•US 4-Week Bill Auction 4.240%, 4.400% previous
•US 8-Week Bill Auction 4.260%, 4.350% previous
•US 30-Year Bond Auction 4.535%, 4.608% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•23:50 Japan Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q4) 9.6%forecast, 10.6% previous
•23:50 Japan Tankan All Small Industry CAPEX (Q4) 2.6% previous
•23:50 Japan Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q4) 14 previous
•23:50 Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4) 13 forecast, 13 previous
•23:50 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q4) 28 forecast ,28 previous
•23:50 Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q4) 33 forecast, 34 previous
•23:50 Japan Tankan Small Manufacturers Diffusion Index (Q4) -2 forecasts, 0 previous
•04:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) 3.0% forecast , 1.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro fell sharply against the dollar on Thursday following the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to cut interest rates for the fourth time this year. The ECB lowered rates by 25 basis points and signaled the possibility of further easing as inflation nears its target while the economy remains weak. ECB President Christine Lagarde highlighted downside risks to growth and uncertainty over future tariffs, with some policymakers advocating for a larger half-percentage-point cut. She also noted that domestic inflation remains uncomfortably high. Traders are pricing in 125 basis points worth of rate cuts by the ECB by the end of 2025. The euro was last down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.0473.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0541(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0605(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0465(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0439(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound weakened against the dollar on Thursday as investors awaited the UK GDP report on Friday and the Bank of England (BoE) policy meeting next week. Traders are looking to these key events for insights into the UK's economic outlook and potential changes in monetary policy. On the data front, Britain's housing market showed further strength in November, although uncertainty about the economic outlook may limit activity in the coming months, according to a survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.29% to 106.86.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2830(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2933 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2728(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2598(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar weakened to a 4-1/2-year low against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as the greenback strengthened broadly following U.S. economic data. The U.S. dollar rose for the fifth consecutive day against a basket of major currencies, driven by a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report and the ECB's decision to cut interest rates for the fourth time this year. Additionally, the price of oil, a major Canadian export, fell 0.2% to $70.18 a barrel due to forecasts of ample supply. The Canadian dollar was down 0.2%, trading at 1.4190 per U.S. dollar, after reaching its weakest level since April 2020 at 1.4199.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4187(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4200 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4113 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4043(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Thursday after data showed producer prices rose more than expected. The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand increased by 0.4%, the largest gain since June, following a revised 0.3% increase in October. Economists had forecasted a 0.2% rise. Additionally, a separate Labor Department report showed initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 17,000, reaching a seasonally adjusted 242,000 for the week ending December 7. The dollar was slightly higher at 152.52 yen .Immediate resistance can be seen at 152.85 (Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 154.09 (23.6%fib). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 151.71(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 149.61(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks closed lower after the ECB cut interest rates and signaled potential further easing in 2025, amid a weak economy and growing political risks.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax closed up by 0.13 percent, France’s CAC closed down by 0.03 percent.
Wall Street fell on Thursday as investors assessed key economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting next week.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.53%percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.54% percent, Nasdaq closed down by 0.65% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped over 1% on Thursday as investors booked profits after it briefly hit a five-week high earlier in the session. Traders also squared positions ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting next week.
Spot gold lost 1.2% at $2,684.15 per ounce by 01:40 p.m. ET (1840 GMT), while U.S. gold futures settled 1.7% lower at $2,709.40. Bullion climbed to its highest level since Nov. 6 earlier in the session.
Oil prices settled near unchanged on Thursday, pressured by forecasts of ample supply in the market but supported by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
Brent crude futures settled down 11 cents, or 0.15%, to $73.41 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 27 cents, or 0.38%, at $70.02.
