Institutional Insights: Goldman Sachs Equities Positioning & Key Levels 22/01/25

This recap provides an overview of Gooldman Sachs's positioning metrics across FICC (Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities) and Equities as of Jan 21st. Here’s the key breakdown:

Summary of Positioning Metrics:

  1. CTA Corner (Trend-following Strategies):

    • CTAs are modeled long +$70bn in global equities, around the 43rd percentile.

    • Last week, they added +$13bn across global equities.

    • Key flows over the next week:

      • Flat tape scenario: +$34bn in equity buying (+$6.5bn SPX).

      • Up tape scenario: +$38bn in equity buying (+$6bn SPX).

      • Down tape scenario: +$4bn in equity buying (-$3bn SPX selling).

    • Over the next month:

      • Flat tape scenario: +$55bn equity buying (+$7bn SPX).

      • Up tape scenario: +$104bn equity buying (+$17bn SPX).

      • Down tape scenario: $124bn equity selling (-$32bn SPX).

  2. Goldman Sachs Prime Brokerage (GS PB):

    • Equity Fundamental Long/Short (L/S) Performance:

      • +0.19% between Jan 10 - Jan 16, vs. MSCI World TR (+0.41%).

      • Gains driven by beta +0.31% but offset partially by alpha losses (-0.11%), attributed to short side losses.

    • Equity Systematic Long/Short:

      • Rose +0.84% over the same period.

      • Performance predominantly driven by positive alpha via long side gains.

  3. Buybacks Activity:

    • Corporate buyback flows remain light due to the blackout window.

    • This window is estimated to end around Jan 24, 2025.

Key Pivot Levels (S&P 500 – SPX):

  • Short-term: 5959

  • Medium-term: 5795

  • Long-term: 5314

This positioning update signals relatively bullish CTA flows in equity markets unless a significant downside action occurs, given their buying patterns across both short- and medium-term scenarios.